Build a B2B demand plan from a revenue target

Before you approve a B2B demand plan, work backwards from the revenue target to the customers, opportunities and selling capacity it requires. Then put those requirements on a calendar. A plan can add up perfectly and still fail because the opportunities arrive too late or the team cannot handle them.

The example below shows how to test that before committing channel spend. Every figure is hypothetical, not a client result or an industry benchmark.

1. Agree what the revenue target means

Start with finance, not the campaign calendar. “Add £600,000 in revenue” could describe several different jobs:

• ARR is an annualised recurring revenue run rate at a particular date.

• ACV is annual contract value, with a stated policy for one-off fees and variable charges.

• Bookings record signed business during a period, using an agreed contract-value basis.

• Recognised revenue belongs to the period in which it is earned under the applicable accounting treatment.

A December contract can contribute to year-end ARR without contributing its full annual value to that year’s recognised revenue. Revenue recognition depends on delivery, not simply signing or collecting payment; the IFRS Foundation’s explanation sets out that distinction. Have finance translate the target before marketing models it.

For this example, a subscription business is planning on 1 January 2027 for £3 million ARR on 31 December 2027. Its existing customers are expected to contribute:

ARR bridge

Annualised recurring value

• Opening ARR on 1 January: £2,400,000

• Expected churn and contraction by year-end: −£240,000

• Expected expansion by year-end: +£120,000

• Expected year-end ARR from existing customers: £2,280,000

• New-customer ARR needed to reach £3 million: £720,000

These are changes in recurring run rate, not amounts of recognised revenue to add together. Retention and expansion are assumptions here; in your plan, give each an evidence source and an owner.

Assume each new customer contributes £30,000 recurring ACV, becomes active before year-end and remains active then. The business needs 24 new customers: £720,000 ÷ £30,000. That is more than the 20 suggested by dividing the headline £600,000 growth target by ACV, because the existing base is expected to shrink overall.

2. Deduct the contribution from existing pipeline

Review the opportunities already open before asking marketing to create more. Check whether each still has a credible buying process and enough time to become an active customer within the target period.

For this illustration, 20 opening opportunities qualify for that review, each with £30,000 recurring annual value. Assume 30% become won, active customers by 31 December: six expected wins contributing £180,000 ARR. The remaining requirement is therefore £540,000 ARR, or 18 customers, from opportunities accepted after 1 January.

The opening pipeline’s full £600,000 potential value is not £600,000 of expected ARR. Nor should an opportunity count once in the opening pipeline and again as a new campaign result.

Use all relevant sources, including sales and partners, rather than assuming the whole gap belongs to marketing. Dave Kellogg makes this broader planning point: look across pipeline sources rather than managing only marketing’s contribution. Keep source-credit questions in your attribution model; this plan needs one deduplicated commercial total.

3. Turn the remaining requirement into opportunities

Assume 25% of newly accepted opportunities become active customers within the available time. To produce the remaining 18 customers, the business needs:

72 accepted opportunities × 25% conversion × £30,000 recurring ACV = £540,000 expected ARR.

Define “accepted” with sales before using the number. It should represent a genuine opportunity that sales has agreed to pursue, not a downloaded guide or an unqualified meeting booking.

The 25% assumption needs a matching denominator. For a real estimate, follow a comparable cohort of accepted opportunities through a sufficient observation period and count how many became active customers within the required window. A win rate calculated only from closed deals may omit unresolved opportunities that will miss the deadline.

Keep materially different segments separate. A rate from smaller inbound deals may tell you little about larger outbound contracts, and the new opportunities may not convert like the more advanced opening pipeline.

Label inputs as observed, estimated or untested. Record the underlying counts and dates beside an observed rate; if the history is thin or the sales motion has changed, show a range rather than adding decimal places.

4. Work backwards from the customer start date

For the base case, assume six months from opportunity acceptance to contract activation. This is a simplified timing rule for the example, not a claim that every deal takes exactly six months.

The 72 opportunities therefore need to be accepted by 30 June to support the December target: an average of 12 a month from January to June. Dividing 72 by all 12 months would halve the apparent monthly requirement while ignoring the time needed to convert them.

Demand activity must start earlier still if it takes time to reach buyers and get opportunities accepted. Work back through procurement, implementation and any other steps between sales acceptance and an active subscription. Use the spread of actual completion times rather than treating the median sales cycle as a deadline every customer will meet.

New opportunities accepted after June may support the following year. They are not wasted, but this simplified base case gives them no contribution to the current year-end target.

5. Check whether sales can carry the workload

A sales target does not establish sales capacity. Review the live deal load, the work required at each stage and the availability of people who support demos, procurement and implementation.

Suppose this team can accept and properly work 10 new opportunities a month while handling its opening pipeline and customer commitments. Across January to June, that allows 60 new opportunities, rather than the required 72.

At the assumed 25% conversion rate, those 60 produce 15 expected customers and £450,000 ARR. Add £180,000 from opening pipeline and £2,280,000 from existing customers: the model reaches £2,910,000, leaving a £90,000 ARR gap.

Buying enough demand to generate 72 opportunities does not remove that gap if the team can only work 60. The decision might be to add capacity, remove avoidable sales work, improve conversion or revise the target. Each option needs evidence and lead time; a planned hire cannot contribute before they are available and effective.

Check peaks as well as monthly averages. A campaign that delivers most of its opportunities together can overwhelm the team even when the six-month total looks manageable.

6. Price the work and test the assumptions

Now estimate the cost of delivering the required opportunities. Include production, specialist support, tools and sales effort, not just the media bill, and distinguish additional cash spend from existing resources the plan will consume.

Suppose the proposed programme requires £90,000 of additional spend. Dividing that by 18 expected customers gives £5,000 programme spend per expected customer, but it is not fully loaded CAC: it excludes existing payroll and other acquisition costs. Have finance add the remaining costs and match them to the relevant acquisition cohort before judging affordability.

The £90,000 also does not solve the selling-capacity shortfall identified above. Cost the chosen remedy separately, then check the payment schedule against available cash and expected collections. Annualised revenue is not cash available to pay this month’s suppliers.

Change the most uncertain inputs before approving the plan:

Hypothetical case: 25% conversion; six-month timing rule

• New opportunities needed for 18 expected customers: 72

• Acceptance window: January–June

• Average required per month: 12

Hypothetical case: 20% conversion; six-month timing rule

• New opportunities needed for 18 expected customers: 90

• Acceptance window: January–June

• Average required per month: 15

Hypothetical case: 25% conversion; eight-month timing rule

• New opportunities needed for 18 expected customers: 72

• Acceptance window: January–April

• Average required per month: 18

These are separate sensitivities, holding the other assumptions constant, including the opening pipeline contribution. They show the workload needed to support the target, not the probability of achieving it. Lower conversion and slower sales could happen together, so also test a combined downside if both are plausible.

For the example, the capacity gap is already a decision that needs resolving. The next commercial test should address whichever uncertain input would most change the commitment: whether the selected buyers accept the opportunity, whether deals can become active in time, or what it costs to create opportunities that sales will pursue.

Set a bounded test around that question, with an owner, an affordable spend limit and a decision date. A short test can reveal poor fit or a broken handover, but it cannot establish a six-month conversion rate in a fortnight. Decide what early evidence would justify continuing while the cohort matures, rather than calling a handful of meetings proof that the full plan works.

Leave with a decision, not just a funnel

The useful output is a target the leadership team can reconcile with retention, pipeline, timing, capacity and cost. Record which assumptions support it, what is still unproven and what has to change before committing the full budget.

Once that is clear, the inbound engine guide and SaaS marketing playbook cover the execution choices. If you need help checking the commercial plan first, get in touch.